Add a comment

 

consider scale Re: Risk-storming

Consider the scales. A medium impact may be 10 times the impact of low impact item; a high impact item may be 100 times. Considering the impact in terms of story points or $s or time can help adjust the scale. Likewise, a highly risky item may be much more than 3 times as risky as a low. Low risk might be 5% whereas high risk might be 75%. Depending on the scale, you may need to consider ALL your high impact risks first. Or maybe you may need to consider ALL your high probability risks first. Furthermore, large programs should probably use a Monte Carlo simulation to compute a risk adjusted schedule. Using the type of computation above to figure a schedule or cost adjustment would be a misapplication of "Expected Value" since (1) we aren’t dealing with discrete random variables, (2) the risks aren’t coming from one population of data (one random variable from one distribution), and (3) we generally aren’t repeating the experiment a large number of times, or at the very least aren't interested in the expected value over a large number of releases, but rather something more like an 85% confidence interval for THIS release. Another thing to consider is that distributions in IT scheduling are more likely to be Weibull distributions than normal distributions (they are likely to have a long tail). The authority on all this is a colleague of mine, Troy Magennis: http://focusedobjective.com/

consider scale Re: Risk-storming


Title
Body
HTML : b, strong, i, em, blockquote, br, p, pre, a href="", ul, ol, li, sub, sup
Name
E-mail address
Website
Remember me Yes  No 

E-mail addresses are not publicly displayed, so please only leave your e-mail address if you would like to be notified when new comments are added to this blog entry (you can opt-out later).